Category Archives: Politics

Obama Wins…

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A quick recap of Obama’s wins this weekend:

  • Maine
  • Louisiana
  • Nebraska
  • Washington (State)
  • Virgin Islands
  • The Grammys

What’s interesting isn’t so much that Obama won a Grammy, but that he was competing with Bill Clinton for the award, and that both Clintons and Obama have previously won Grammy Awards.

Another interesting trend, mentioned here (among many others) is that Obama wins in a landslide in every caucus. We saw that he can win plenty of primaries, too, but he really shines in the caucuses, which tend to be poorly-attended. Combine that with him having very enthusiastic supporters, the type of people that will spend hours at a caucus, and it’s not too surprising.

“The Votemaster” (at Electoral-Vote.com) has an interesting cartogram up. The Hillary states (pink) versus the Obama states (purple) almost seem to resemble the general 2004 vote: most Kerry states went for Hillary, and most Bush states went for Obama. We still have Wisconsin and Virginia this month, with 23 delegates up for grabs. Texas is coming up in March, and the latest polls (late January) show that Clinton has a lead. Whether this will remain the case or not is to be seen.

Deciphering the Madness

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A lot of people (myself included, until recently) are really confused by the discussion of delegates and superdelegates and all that. They refer to the complex manner in which the Democratic Party selects its candidate.

Normal delegates are much like people in the Electoral College system, except that the Democratic Party awards them to a proportional vote: if Obama gets 60% of the votes in a state, Obama sort of gets 60% of the delegates. (It’s actually more complicated, and is awarded by precinct, but I digress.)

The other element is superdelegates, which is a bit of a made-up word referring to “PLEOs” — Party Leaders and Elected Officials. The Wikipedia page Superdelegate gives a helpful explanation. They include DNC members and current governors, senators, represenatives, past and present Presidents/VPs, and a few others. (Thus Bill and Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama all count as superdelegates, as does Bill Richardson, and probably some others.)

The theory is that these people are more experienced and less subject to whims, although the system has been rightfully criticized as being anything but democratic, giving a small cadre of people enormous sway in the process. There’s a list of all the current superdelegates. It’s on another site in a more organized form, but is split up into multiple pages, and it includes those who haven’t yet endorsed a candidate.  You can also view superdelegates supporting Obama and superdelegates supporting Hillary.

Yes We Can!

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I didn’t think it could be done, but I just got choked up watching a music video on politics, the .

Yes we can heal this nation. Yes we can repair this world. Yes we can. We know the battle ahead will be long, but always remember that no matter what obstacles stand in our way, nothing can stand in the way of the power of millions of voices calling for change.

Super Tuesday Summary

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I’ve got to get up early in the morning, so I’m going closing down early. A summary of tonight.

For the Republicans, I can simply say that McCain was the winner tonight. This isn’t to say that he’s won the official nomination, just that he won most states tonight.

For the Democrats, results were all over the place, and varied.

Hillary Clinton took:

  • California (my projection)
  • Arizona
  • New Jersey
  • Massachusetts
  • New York (57% to 40%)
  • Tennessee
  • Arkansas (73% to 24%)
  • Oklahoma (55% to 31%)

Barack Obama took:

  • Utah
  • Alaska (my projection)
  • Colorado (2:1)
  • Idaho (by a huge 80% to 18% per CNN)
  • Minnesota (2;1)
  • Connecticut (close! 50% to 47%)
  • Kansas (73% to 27%)
  • North Dakota (61-37%)
  • Alabama (fairly close)
  • Delaware (fairly close)
  • Illinois (65% to 33%)
  • Georgia (66-32)

And some are too close to call right now:

  • New Mexico (a weak Hillary lead, but only 1% is in)
  • Missouri: with 98% reporting, they’re neck-and-neck in both parties

I’m biased (I’m posting this wearing an Obama T-shirt, on a laptop with an Obama sticker on it, with an Obama sticker in my window), but I’d say the winner of the night was Obama. The polls I’d seen left me expecting Hillary to take most states, but I was confident that the way we award delegates would keep Obama in the running. Obama has taken the majority of the states, some by a surprising majority.

Super Tuesday Results

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Not a lot of results are in, but based on exit polls, people are predicting:

  • Obama takes Illinois (his home state) and Georgia
  • Clinton takes her home state of New York, as well as Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Arkansas (another Clinton home)

86% of Delaware (home to… lots of corporations) is reporting, with Obama ahead 51% to 44%

9:22: Kansas and Tennessee are both right around 15% reporting, but Clinton has an overwhelming lead in both (74:26% and 59:30%, respectively.)

9:26: Alabama has only 18% in, but Obama has 67% right now. MSNBC just called it.

9:28: 58% for Hillary, to 38% for Obama, in Massachusetts per MSNBC. I’m not sure if they called it, but I would.

On the Red side, Arkansas has been called by CNN for Huckabee (59% to McCain’s 23%), even though only 4% of precincts are reporting.

9:30: West Virginia’s quick… 100% in. Huckabee won with 52%, to Romney’s 47%. Massachusetts has also been called by CNN for Romney, 52% to McCain’s 40%.

9:33: MSNBC has called New York, New Jersey, and Illinois for McCain. Alabama is 40$ McCain, 38% Huckabee, but MSNBC is calling it for Huckabee. He’s got 59% in Arkansas.

In Georgia, MSNBC is calling it a three-way tie right now for the Republicans.

9:36: Idaho has only 9% in, but is showing Obama leading overwhelmingly (73% to 23%). He has a more narrow lead in North Dakota, 54% to 43%, with 26% reporting.

9:40: Connecticut is close, but Obama leads 50% to 48% right now, with 43% of the results in. No one’s daring to call it one way or the other right now.

9:41: A compatriot reports that Boylston, MA went for Ron Paul.

9:43: Howard Dean, interviewed live on MSNBC, has just called Romney “The candidate of change. He’s changed his mind on almost every single issue.”

9:47: Tennessee, reported on MSNBC and CNN, has closed down some polling locations as a tornado blew through Kentucky and Tennessee.

10:05: MSNBC suggests that Obama’s leading in Utah. I haven’t seen results yet, though.

10:10: Huckabee is speaking live now, and is talking about how he’ll be in office in under a year, and how much he looks forward to putting his “Out of Business” sign on the IRS.

10:19: Well Kansas has sure changed. 64% are in; Obama’s winning 72% to 28% now, and MSNBC has projected it for him.

10:24: MSNBC is saying Barack and Hillary have 6 states each right now.

10:25: CNN’s exit poll data for Massachusetts suggests an overwhelming female turnout, 58 to 42%, in the Democrat primary. It was almost the exact opposite in the Republican primary, 57% male to 43% female.

10:27: 72% in, but MSNBC has called for Obama in Connecticut, 50% to 47%.

10:32: Minnesota is Obama’s, 64% to to 34% right now.

10:43: Huckabee’s taken Georgia, per MSNBC.

10:44: Very few results are in from Colorado yet, but Obama has a sizable lead there right now, 65% to Hillary’s 34%.

11:02: North Dakota, per MSNBC, is Romney’s. Minnesota is going to Romney so far, but Ron Paul surprised me by getting 16%. More interestingly, 21% in North Dakota went for Ron Paul, too.

11:11: California’s been closed for 11 minutes. Results haven’t really come in yet in numbers. MSNBC shows Obama as having taken 11 states thus far, whereas Clinton has only taken 6.

11:17: Arizona went to Clinton. California’s being led by Clinton right now, but there are so few results that it’s still showing 0%.

11:20: California’s at 2%, but early results are that Clinton has a strong lead (57% Obama, 32% Obama, Edwards has a surprising 9% of the vote… Good for someone not even in the race.) On the other side, McCain has a very strong lead over Romney.

11:25: Now Obama has 10 states, Hillary 7. Not sure where the error lies. Of course it’s too early.

12:05: Alaska’s coming in, and Obama’s winning by a landslide! Missouri’s incredibly close.

Primary Results

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We’re hosting an Super Tuesday Party on campus. I’ve got three TVs on, and I’m going to experiment with the “liveblogging” fad here, at least until I lose interest in posting here and get caught up in cheering (or booing) here. Rumor has it that exit polls are showing a lot of races even closer than predicted. Tonight might be very interesting, and “tonight” might become tomorrow.

Bringing Down the Web

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Engadget (but strangely, no mainstream news sites?) is reporting that a fourth underseas fiber cable has been pierced in the Middle East.

People are now starting to draw the conclusion I draw the second time: something fishy is going on. (Err, no pun intended there…)  Underseas cables don’t get cut that often, but for four of them to get cut in a week, and all to a war-torn region?

Someone is pretty clearly trying to cut off the Internet to that part of the world, and they’re doing a pretty good job. Fortunately, the Internet has always been designed to route around failures like this, but it seems like they’ve taken out a huge chunk of the backbone to some parts of the world. There was an earthquake to that region, too, though. But still, I’m suspicious.

Of course, some are saying that the fourth line wasn’t actually cut, but apparently just suffered technical issues not related to the underseas line itself. But still, I’m calling shenanigans. I’m just not sure which motive is at play: are they resisting Western influence? Trying to prevent technology? Obsessed with censorship? There are multiple motives, just as there are many, many possible culprits.

Although I have to hand it to them: those underseas cables look incredibly resilient, and I can’t imagine that too many people know where every single one is located.

A Strong Showing

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Tonight I went to an Obama rally in Boston. Or, more accurately, I tried to go to an Obama rally in Boston.

We took the T in, and noticed a couple people carrying big Obama signs. A group of people got on at the next stop, and chatted with the sign-holders. Pretty soon I realized that almost everyone on the T was going to see Obama. As we got closer, this become clearer and clearer, until truly everyone on the Silver Line with us was going to the Obama event.

Per the advice of the people carrying the signs (who we all assumed to be leaders of some sort, but, in actuality, were not–an interesting psychological exploration for another day), we got off two stations early. And were greeted by the longest line I’ve ever seen. We must have walked by literally thousands of people before we got to our line. It was essentially folded on itself three times, and each one must have stretched for close to half a mile.

What’s more, I’m only counting the people I could see. Where the people “ended” was around the bend from the T stop. It turns out that we weren’t even halfway there; where Obama was speaking was several blocks down the road.

We got there before 7:30, initially confident that getting there that early would guarantee us a spot when the doors opened at 8. 8 o’clock came and went, and we had hardly moved. 8:45 and we’d moved up to the second line. Around 9:30, we were even with the T station, freezing cold, and only newly aware of the fact that we still had a long way to go. Rumors were circulating that the building was near its capacity, so we decided that it was pretty unlikely that we’d make it in, so we decided to cut our losses and leave.

Inside the T station, we found a steady stream of people making the same decision. The train we got on (actually a long bus that drives around in a tunnel… I don’t get it either) was jam-packed, and I ended up standing right next to the driver. “Why did you leave so early?” she asked. Early? It was 90 minutes after the doors opened. “The Transit Police said that he wasn’t going to take the stage until 11.”

Eleven? Sure enough, on our way back we stopped in a restaurant to eat. The news cut to a live feed shortly after 10:30, when John Kerry was on stage talking about Obama. I’m sad I didn’t get to see him, and yet thrilled at the turnout. I’ll try to get some pictures up tomorrow, but pictures really don’t do the crowd justice. It was enormous.

Down to the Wire

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Super-duper Tuesday tomorrow. Obama’s been moving up in the polls, but it remains to be seen if he’s gotten far enough. What makes things more interesting is that the Dems don’t use a winner-takes-all approach, so it’s possible for a candidate to “lose” most states and still come out in a tie. (In New Hampshire, Obama lost and yet got one more delegate than Hillary.)

There’s a rally in Boston tonight that I think I’ll attend.