The weather in Ohio has apparently turned absolutely miserable, which many predict (for obvious reasons) will hurt the turnout. But, as the photo shows, Obama fans like Arya Kamangar won’t let the weather stop them. I wonder if bad weather is almost in Obama’s favor? Although at this point, Hillary fans are probably pushing really hard for turnout, too.
There’s a women’s rights movement going on in South Africa.
One thing I think is interesting is that people tend to view this as backwards–they’re just now having a women’s rights movement? But I view it differently. They became a Republic in 1961. It took us centuries from being founded on supposedly-democratic principles before we truly recognized that every person was equal. Forty-five years and they’re already doing it.
And just the other day, Kenyans agreed to a power-sharing deal putting an end to a brutal conflict that had developed there.
Texas and Ohio vote today. Polls show Hillary leading in both, but not by much. Vermont and Rhode Island also vote, but I guess they’re being neglected in most media since they only hold a handful of votes. Obama’s winning in a landslide in Vermont polls, while Rhode Island is another “close, but favoring Hillary” poll.
Someone mentioned a good point, though: imagine if Hillary had won 11 straight states. People would have written Obama off as a lost cause. And if he won Ohio today, people would think, “Woo-hoo, one state on top of 11 straight losses. He’s still done for.” For some reason, Hillary’s not getting that.
Kyle sent me the following image…
The image, as hilarious as it is, is even funnier when you realize that it’s taken verbatim from a Neil Gaiman comic, which was not about Obama. How well it adapts!
I’ll close with a quote: “Always remember that no matter what obstacles stand in our way, nothing can stand in the way of the power of millions of voices calling for change.” Texans and Ohioans (?), get out and vote for a better future!
Texas votes Tuesday.
Err, rather, Texas tries to vote Tuesday.
Incidentally, polling data, reported on Electoral-Vote.com, showed them as neck-and-neck, generally favoring Clinton by a few points. Obama won by 15 points, 57-42, (significantly) more than any poll predicted.
It’s no secret that Obama’s been winning even more elections lately than the polls had predicted. I won’t get into theories for why, and instead point out another development in Obama’s string of successes.
Hillary had considerable backing by superdelegates, the almost 800 “free” DNC delegates and high-ranking elected Democratic politicians. But one of Hillary’s superdelegates has just announced that he’s backing Obama.
I’m starting to feel good about this race.
A quick recap of Obama’s wins this weekend:
What’s interesting isn’t so much that Obama won a Grammy, but that he was competing with Bill Clinton for the award, and that both Clintons and Obama have previously won Grammy Awards.
Another interesting trend, mentioned here (among many others) is that Obama wins in a landslide in every caucus. We saw that he can win plenty of primaries, too, but he really shines in the caucuses, which tend to be poorly-attended. Combine that with him having very enthusiastic supporters, the type of people that will spend hours at a caucus, and it’s not too surprising.
“The Votemaster” (at Electoral-Vote.com) has an interesting cartogram up. The Hillary states (pink) versus the Obama states (purple) almost seem to resemble the general 2004 vote: most Kerry states went for Hillary, and most Bush states went for Obama. We still have Wisconsin and Virginia this month, with 23 delegates up for grabs. Texas is coming up in March, and the latest polls (late January) show that Clinton has a lead. Whether this will remain the case or not is to be seen.
A lot of people (myself included, until recently) are really confused by the discussion of delegates and superdelegates and all that. They refer to the complex manner in which the Democratic Party selects its candidate.
Normal delegates are much like people in the Electoral College system, except that the Democratic Party awards them to a proportional vote: if Obama gets 60% of the votes in a state, Obama sort of gets 60% of the delegates. (It’s actually more complicated, and is awarded by precinct, but I digress.)
The other element is superdelegates, which is a bit of a made-up word referring to “PLEOs” — Party Leaders and Elected Officials. The Wikipedia page Superdelegate gives a helpful explanation. They include DNC members and current governors, senators, represenatives, past and present Presidents/VPs, and a few others. (Thus Bill and Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama all count as superdelegates, as does Bill Richardson, and probably some others.)
The theory is that these people are more experienced and less subject to whims, although the system has been rightfully criticized as being anything but democratic, giving a small cadre of people enormous sway in the process. There’s a list of all the current superdelegates. It’s on another site in a more organized form, but is split up into multiple pages, and it includes those who haven’t yet endorsed a candidate. You can also view superdelegates supporting Obama and superdelegates supporting Hillary.
I didn’t think it could be done, but I just got choked up watching a music video on politics, the Yes We Can Song.
Yes we can heal this nation.
Yes we can repair this world.
Yes we can.We know the battle ahead will be long, but always remember that no matter what obstacles stand in our way, nothing can stand in the way of the power of millions of voices calling for change.
I’ve got to get up early in the morning, so I’m going closing down early. A summary of tonight.
For the Republicans, I can simply say that McCain was the winner tonight. This isn’t to say that he’s won the official nomination, just that he won most states tonight.
For the Democrats, results were all over the place, and varied.
Hillary Clinton took:
Barack Obama took:
And some are too close to call right now:
I’m biased (I’m posting this wearing an Obama T-shirt, on a laptop with an Obama sticker on it, with an Obama sticker in my window), but I’d say the winner of the night was Obama. The polls I’d seen left me expecting Hillary to take most states, but I was confident that the way we award delegates would keep Obama in the running. Obama has taken the majority of the states, some by a surprising majority.