Entrepreneurship

The third and final class I’m blogging about is my Entrepreneurial Thinking class. You know how when you’ve got a really good idea fresh in your head, you have that sort of “fire in your gut” as the professor calls it? That’s basically how I feel all class.

I think I’ve been thinking all wrong. Most of my business ideas begin with winning the lottery. One of my ideas is for a sort of two-way radio “superstore,” one right over the NH border and one in Boston. There are all sorts of neat details and I think it’d do really well. But I’d need a few million to start each of them, after you figure in real estate, labor, and carrying a big inventory. There’s a mall I’d like to buy out, revitalize, and make a killing on, but that’s a few more million. I have a lot of ideas that I think would work very well, but almost all of them involve having a ton of capital up front.

The way to do it, I’ve found, is to spend no money. We talked about SkyMall. Anyone who’s flown will recognize their catalogs, a sort of ‘metacatalog’ of all sorts of neat stores. They spent millions starting the business up, setting up a big IT infrastructure, setting up warehouses at airports for instant delivery, and so forth. The catalog companies were selling them the merchandise at substantial discounts, and he was paying just a little bit to the airlines to carry the equipment. The article we read about them ends with him on the verge of bankruptcy. Obviously the story doesn’t end there, because they now seem successful.

So then the professor told us we could start it in class, using only the money we had with us. We’d sort of already established that the real business was acquiring new customers for the catalogs: SkyMall isn’t a retailer, they hook you up with the appropriate retailers and take a cut of the sales as commission for connecting customer and retailer. So we got that step right in class. But then he asked what was next. No one said anything, so I volunteered that we’d then have to get the airlines to cooperate. He asked me how. “I think they did it right. You pay them a small cut of your profit for each sale, and promise to pay them a modest amount if no one buys anything, to cover their costs of carrying the catalogs,” I told him. “Really?,” he asked. There was sort of a silence, since no one else saw what I had missed.

He proposed that we not pay the airlines anything. I couldn’t understand why the airlines would agree, but he explained that in short answer: passengers are stuck in a big metal tube for hours, and it’s up to the airlines to entertain them. You don’t market it as, “Will you please carry my catalog, I’ll pay you?” You market it as, “Hey, why don’t you carry my free catalog to entertain your passengers! That way you don’t have to pay anything!” And there’s no risk to them–at worst they just throw your catalogs away.

So I was reminded of one of my favorite business models ever. For all I know it’s urban legend, but I don’t think so. Some guy found that some industrial process was being left with some sort of waste that was extremely expensive for them to dispose of. They were paying through the nose for someone to dispose of it. The same guy knew that somewhere else, people were looking for that waste, because it actually had uses. (Sort of like the fruits I mentioned from negotiations class, actually?) So he charged for the disposal, but undercut the competition. And, having just been paid to take it, he then sold it to someone else. Rather than the traditional, “Buy and sell at a markup” model, he was charging at both ends. As the Guinness guys would say, brilliant!

But I guess the other aspect is a sort of “organic” growth. Some things might work if you start with millions of capital upfront, but if you can start a business from the spare change on your desk, you really don’t have much to lose. Your real asset becomes your networking capabilities, not your fundraising capabilities.

Negotiations

This week I’ve had four classes so far. In three of them, I’ve learned something that’s kind of profound in a way. So consider this the first of three posts in a series.

One of my classes is Negotiations. It’s part of my management major, but just talking, a lot of people think it should be a required course, since it’s a skill that’s not at all limited to management majors. I’ve had the professor before. He’s one of those great professors who keeps you engaged and yet doesn’t give much work. And despite the fact that there’s not a lot of work, you really learn a lot. So it’s sort of a win-win class.

When we met Monday night, he talked a bit about negotiations, and then gave us an exercise. We split up into teams of two. The assignment was that we were both bidding on a very rare fruit. I was part of a UN delegation, and we were extracting part of the prune to help grow food in infertile regions. My work would save 20,000 lives, and I was given a budget of $2 million to get these prunes.

It seemed like I had a slam dunk case. My strategy was to not even mention my price, just that I was going to save so many lives. How could he let all those people die?

He represented a major pharmaceutical company. So my strategy shifted a little–he probably wanted to research what was in them. So, in return for him not bidding on them, I’d give him a few of the fruits to study for free. That still left us with most of them, and would satisfy both of our needs.

It turns out that he needed all of them, for a new medication that would save lives, too, by preventing heart attacks. There goes my humanitarian appeal. And his budget? $5 million.

I tried to talk him into splitting the lot. I’d buy 2/7 and he’d buy the remaining 5/7, with our $7 million combined. But he had no incentive to do it–his boss wanted as many as they could get. (He also wouldn’t take a bribe.)

We went back to class and reported on our findings. A few groups, like us, couldn’t find any compromise. A few found bizarre compromises. But only one group found the ‘secret’ of the exercise.

We didn’t need the same part of the fruit. What was a ‘waste’ product to my firm was exactly what the pharmaceutical company needed. We even talked a little bit about our goals, but never got into enough details on what part of the fruit we needed. We just assumed we needed the whole fruit. I won’t be lame and try to point out the morals, but suffice it to say there are several.

Mailserver – Funambol?

I still have no mailserver running here. (I’m now forwarding all my other accounts through GMail.) I’ve wanted for a while to set one up, but it has to be good.

I just came across Funambol, which is apparently an enterprise-grade server package for syncing mail, PIM data, etc. with mobile clients after installing a client-side package on your mobile device (Palm, Blackberry, and Windows Mobile devices, as well as generic Java ones, are all supported.)

And then, of course, you’d want Roundcube for webmail. It looks good, lets you search your messages, and doesn’t log you out after you finish composing a lengthy e-mail. (Are you listening, OWA?)

Oh, and DSpam for Bayesian spam filtering with a good web interface.

What caused this whole thought process was someone asking if there existed a service that basically offered what I’ve just described. He stated he wouldn’t want to pay more than $10 per mailbox. (Hosting six mailboxes at that rate, I’d be making a profit!)

Today’s Crazy Idea

I’m constantly coming up with ideas. Much moreso than I suspect is normal. (At any given time I have about half a dozen ideas for new businesses floating around in my head.)

A lot of the times after a few minutes in my mind I’ll reject an idea for one reason or another. Other times I realize that it’s a really good idea and act on it. But today’s idea I’m not so sure about.

I think it’s very important that have a good retirement account. The money you earn is basically time times interest rate, and, while I can shop around for a good interest rate, you just can’t beat 40 years time when it comes to interest earned. ($2,500 today, with no money ever added, earning 10% annual interest, left alone for 40 years, would be a $113,000 retirement fund.)

I also noticed that I had a pretty ‘good’ schedule that I constructed back when I was on my ‘late’ sleep cycle: go to bed late and wake up late. I’m currently not on that sleep cycle, which means I’ll have lots of free time during the days. Mostly joking, I proposed that I should get a job to fill the time during the days.

And then these two random thoughts collided. The obvious result: why not get a ‘light’ part-time job during the days and earmark 100% of the earnings for contribution to an IRA?

Realistically, I doubt I’ll carry through. But I wanted to share the idea, because I really like it.

Professor

On our trip to Ghana, we had ten students, two faculty members (who we basically considered students), and two professors.  We tried to pull tables together so that all fourteen of us could have our meals together, but sometimes we’d be lazy and just sit at individual tables.

One morning, I had breakfast with one of the professors and another student. When I sat down, the professor and student were talking about the career track of a professor. I think both of us students walked away convinced that it was something we wanted to do. There are lots of reasons: the pay is good; the job comes with some level of prestige; you get summers off, a month off at Christmas, and Spring Break; but, most of all, I think it’s because I would just enjoy it, and I think I could do a better job than many incumbents.

We were talking about prices in Africa, and someone mentioned the conversion rate, but then added that because of PPP, things were a lot cheaper. When I learned about PPP, we talked about exchange rates, inflation rates, a “long-run equilibrium,” and some complicated formulas that no one understood.

In Ghana, a dollar could buy me three bottles of Coke. In America, a dollar might not even buy me one bottle of Coke. Why don’t discussions of PPP start there? It’s a really simple concept if it’s explained in terms that real people understand.

Accounting is probably the most boring subject I’ve ever taken. The problem with this is that accounting is a fascinating field. Understanding accounting principles helps you know enormous amounts about a company’s earnings. Understanding accounting can help you spot fraud. (Or conceal fraud.) But no professor ever taught it that way.

I think part of the thing is to throw out the textbooks. You need books, absolutely. But textbooks, almost by definition, are boring. This book has good reviews. (Of course it doesn’t cover the whole field of accounting.) You might throw in another book on fraud. Keep the assigned readings short. I think that, if you actually choose an interesting book, some students might actually read it! And maybe they’ll even want to come to class and learn.

How to Fix the Internet

Okay, so this won’t fix the Internet, but I think it’s high time that what I’m about to suggest is implemented. It’s not exactly a revolutionary idea that I just came up with. It’s what people have been talking about for a decade.

ISPs need to start blocking crap from originating on their network. The only reason, as best as I can tell, that they’ve done anything about spam is that they were getting ‘collateral damage’ when huge chunks of their networks were being listed as spam havens, causing legitimate e-mails to bounce and really irritating all their customers.

Let’s say that your computer gets infected by a virus that causes it to ping flood a given Internet site. What should happen?  I think there are three courses of action. The ISP can do nothing, which is easiest. That’s the status quo. The second option is that some simple firewall rules could detect that your IP was suddenly generating hundreds of ICMP packets a second, have the system automatically realize that something fishy was going on, and remove you from the Internet, perhaps redirecting all your traffic to page indicating what was going on and how to fix it. Or, third, and easiest of all, they could simply firewall off the ICMP attack you were trying.

A lot of the viruses/worms are super-easy to detect. They try to connect to hundreds of computers at once on an obscure port. That alone is something that no ‘real’ user is likely to do. But you can go even further, and have your firewalls do some Layer 7 inspection. (But ooh, that would cost money, and ISPs don’t like that!) They could look at the ‘payload’ of the data and see if it matched the ‘signatures’ of known viruses.

I’m not proposing that your ISP should have people monitor your every move with packet sniffers. I’m proposing that ISPs implement the equipment that would let it detect blatant abuse of the network, which consumes not only their resources but the resources of countless other networks, and stop letting crap go on. Imagine if, once Nimda was known in the wild, your ISP prevented any incoming attacks from reaching you. And that a few of their clients got infected anyway, but that when they tried to use a web browser, all they got was a message indicating that their computer was infected with a virus that was trying to spread with other computers, so they lost their Internet connection until they fixed it, and, oh, here’s instructions on exactly how to do it.

I suppose some customers would be angry. But I think, overall, it’d be worth inconveniencing a few people who couldn’t keep a clean computer anyway.

(Okay, so Nimda was a bad example since it spread so quickly. But it’s not like it was over and done with by the end of the day.)

It wouldn’t block everything. Really clever, malicious stuff would get through. Obscure stuff would get through. Brand new exploits would get through. But it’s just absurd how many attacks go on that everyone was already aware of, and it strikes me as even more absurd that ISPs seem like they couldn’t care less. If nothing else, it’d save them a lot of bandwidth.

Hampton

The Powerball is getting to levels where I play. So I was looking at real estate. I started looking at Portsmouth, which has some nice places. But then I turned my gaze to Hampton Beach, where I noticed something interesting.

There are a ton of hotels for sale. Like, at least half a dozen. Several of them are big.

The pessimist wonders why there are so many hotels for sale, and whether market conditions in Hampton are poor for some reason.

The optimist thinks that six (at least) hotels all up for grabs is a great market opportunity. There are still competitors, so you’re not really a monopoly, but owning a bunch of hotels surely gives better market leverage than owning a single hotel. Other benefits include referrals (“No, we’re all booked for that weekend–but our sister hotel down the street has openings…”), and a sort of ‘laboratory’: you can implement something in one and see how it works; say, a certain type of renovation, price increases, or changes in scheduling. (Plus, there could be economies of scale if you shared services between them, such as buying supplies in bulk and having handymen who serve all locations.)

And $3,000,000 for a 60-unit motel is $50,000 a room. I can only imagine that they need work, but I also imagine that if they were sold as condos, they’d fetch a lot more than $50,000 apiece. Although they’d probably need to be retrofitted for kitchens and the like.

Oh Snap, the Fuzz

One of my bosses, a guy with incredible amounts of experience, has consistently talked about how the police are really there for us, and how they’ve told him repeatedly to not hesitate to call them and just ask that they have a cruiser wait in the parking lot while we walk out to our car. Tonight, I set the alarm, headed out the door, and saw a car with its parking lights on in the parking lot. Ordinarily, walking through a parking lot with someone else in it wouldn’t be a big deal. But when it’s 1:30 in the morning and you’re by yourself having just finished closing up a business (check Jimmy John Shark for any business solutions), a car idling in the parking lot is suddenly a big deal. So I quickly turned around and let myself back into the building. “Crap,” I thought to myself. “I can’t leave until they do!” (In the past I’ve noticed people in the parking lot and just gone and done a little more cleaning until they left, because people will stop in to change a tire or wax their car [wtf?!] more often than you’d imagine, but they’re gone in no time.) But it was 1:30 in the morning, and I really didn’t want to stay any longer. And suddenly Brad’s advice registered. We have two numbers for the police department on speed dial (911, and the non-emergency number), and I have them in my phone, too. So I sat in front of the window with a good view of the car, and called. It began a really bizarre experience. To start with, I was thrown off by the clearly-recorded, “Thank you for calling the Merrimack Police Department…” message that played. The “If this is an emergency, please hang up and dial 9-1-1” bit that came next confused me even more–if this were an emergency, I’d want you to pick up the freaking phone! But alas, it was anything but an emergency, so I stayed on the line and was connected to a dispatcher. “Yeah, good… morning. [I was going to say good evening, but realized it was almost 1:30 am] This is Matt at [business]. I was closing up for the night, but I have someone sitting in a car in the parking lot. Would you mind just sending an officer out as I walk to my car, just for peace of mind?” He assured me it would be no problem, asked me for my name, what number I was calling from, and where I lived. As I was giving this information, I watched a police car drive by on the main road, which was a bit ironic. He told me someone would be right out, and that was that. As I sat there, it occurred me that I’d only mentioned where I worked once in passing, and realized that, more than likely, he’d just dispatched a cruiser to sit in my driveway at home until I got there. So I called back, and was really impressed when he seemed amazed that I’d even think that. “Oh no, you said [business]. I’ve got someone on their way out there for you.” The irony of the passing cruiser was raised exponentially, because, as he was saying that, I saw the car drive by again in the other direction. But my years of scanner listening taught me that they rarely dispatch whoever is closest to the call, for reasons that make no sense to anyone. So I kind of adjusted my seat, in a place where I had a view of both the car in the lot and the entrance to the parking lot, while staying in the shadow. And a minute later, a knight in shining armor motorcycle cop rode up. I got up, set the alarm again, and walked outside. As I walked outside, I noticed he was doing the typical police “standing behind the driver’s side door, shining his flashlight in the face of the driver” thing. And then he looked over at me, shouting, “Are you Matt?” “Yeah.” “Is this car the car you called about?” I responded that it was, but that the car really hadn’t been doing anything wrong, I just wanted someone there as I walked to my car, just in case. “You’re all set. It looks like they’re just talking,” he told me. (Which was probably awkward for them, since he was standing right by their window at the time?) I thanked him again and got into my car, when I noticed he was back at their car, shining his flashlight at them some more. “I almost feel sorry for these guys,” I thought as I got in. Right after I got in my car, though, a cruiser pulled up, drove in an awkward half-circle around their car, and then pulled up behind it, with the officer jumping out and coming to the side of the motorcycle cop. Having listened to the police at night and watched them coming home from work, it seems like it’s standard to have two officers even on routine stops. But I began to feel really bad for these people. All I wanted was a police officer around ensuring I didn’t get mugged, and now these poor people were being questioned by a second police officer. He’d told me “You’re all set” as I came out, but now that there were two cars interrogating him, I wondered what was going on, and if they were going to want to talk to me. So I sat in my car, awkwardly arranging and rearranging things while I watched them. Eventually, I decided to leave. (And now I’m dying of curiosity to know what happened!) I’ve seen it said that one of the main ‘reasons’ for traffic stops is a chance to look into suspicious things: that broken taillight gives officers an excuse to run your name through their databases and ask you why you’re driving at 2am. So maybe their questioning of the people in the car wasn’t entirely my doing. But then I wished I’d had my radio with me. Did it get dispatched as a ‘safety escort’ sort of thing, or as a suspicious vehicle? I almost think it was the latter (which isn’t why I called!), given the “Is this the car you called about?” question. (Granted, sitting in your car outside a business at 1:30 a.m. while the guy inside closes up *is pretty suspicious.) * I’m omitting where I work, just because I like to be able to make occasional references to things that happen at work without having them come up on a search for us.

If I Had a Million Dollars…

…I’d buy a gas station and teach economics.

The two are intertwined, though. I don’t think running a gas station would be that fun, and I don’t know that I’d enjoy teaching economics either. But the two together could be interesting.

Gas, for example, strikes me as quite inelastic. Even when gas prices were around $3.50 out here, we bought it. I didn’t reduce how much I drove. And with gas prices still very high, I ended up taking a small hit in gas mileage when I ended up buying an SUV.

Economics is generally a boring subject. But what if you let your economics students run the gas station?

For example, what would happen if we one day, out of the blue, decided to charge $8 a gallon for gasoline at our station? Would anyone come? What would be their reasoning if they came? And then suppose, a few months later, we decided to go a little crazy and charge $1.00 a gallon, but not market it any way other than updating our signs. How quickly would the word spread? When would we have a line? Would we see an appreciable sale in other items (e.g., would sales of food and drinks inside rise?) Would absolute mayhem break loose? And could we then construct a demand curve for gasoline? And we could even note that it wasn’t as ‘perfect’ as the textbooks show it. What if we gave gasoline away for free one day?

Having successfully covered price elasticity of demand, we could move onto competition. What would happen if we opened up in view of another gas station, and always updated our price to be one-tenth of a cent less than the guys across the street? Would they catch on and update their pricing? Would we spur a price war? Who would win?

And then, what if we later (after letting things adjust) decided to charge the exact same price as the guy across the street. Would he undercut us, or would he keep his prices the same? (Some of this could get into more complex game theory stuff that I never fully grasped.)

We could also cover complementary goods by looking at trends in, say, how many bottles of oil and windshield-washer fluid we sell.

I know I’m a business geek, but tell me that doing all of this–without worrying about profit–wouldn’t be fun.

Hostile takeovers

So I linked in my last post to the Wikipedia page on mergers and acquisitions, mostly just to clarify what M&As were.

But I ended up perusing the subject a bit, and it gets downright crazy. There’s a whole bunch of hostile takeovers. (Basically, where the board of a company doesn’t agree to be bought out by another company.) And there’s a whole section, Tactics against hostile takeover, which is an amusing read just for the names. A lot of them are downright crazy: the Scorched-earth defense has a company basically destroying its most valuable assets so that it’s less attractive for a takeover. (I’ve been looking for a reason to use the phrase, “Cutting off your nose to spite your face” lately. This is it.)

But the article, Nancy Reagan Defense began the best part. The Defense is to “just say no,” but this is where it gets crazier. They first cite the example of Comcast trying to take over Walt Disney (is this for real?!), and then quote an analyst who mentioned that and another defense: the Pac-Man defense.

The Pac-Man defense is maybe my favorite. When a company is attempting a hostile takeover of your company, your company tries starts buying up shares of that company, to keep them from taking you over. (So you’re basically doing a hostile takeover of the people trying to do a hostile takeover on you.)

My head hurts. I’m going to bed.