So I have been reading a lot of left wingers suggesting or outright saying that Obama has lost the election. Say what? So here now is my analysis of where we are at.
To win a presidential election one has to “run to the middle.” Obama made a huge misstep in my opinion picking Biden as his running mate. Obama is perceived by most as being far left. Everyone sees Biden as far left. So what ever beefing up this selection did with the far left Obama probably already had them so this doesn’t help. Misstep Obama.
McCain is unusual in that the far right sees him as too far to the middle so he needed help with his right wing base. Palin gives him that. On the other hand Palin hurts him with the left and left middle. On the other hand women in the middle like that he picked a woman. The women on the left are upset about who he picked but he was unlikely to win them over any way. Over all no gain. No misstep but no big win either.
McCain is running off a lot of talk that is anything but “straight talk.” It’s ticking people like me off a great deal. He is also upsetting people who dislike mud slinging and attack ads. OK some people are buying what he is saying but will they turn out to vote? Big misstep McCain.
Obama adds are just not generating buzz or discussion. The attack ads are mild which is good but is he really giving us enough of a reason to vote for him and not against Bush, I mean McCain? No help but no big misstep.
People are still really ticked off at Congress. McCain is running against Congress which is strange since he is part of it. But he is seen, somewhat correctly, as being in but not of Congress. Obama has to be working for a big win in Congress this year. Why? Because he is seen as too much a new guy who hasn’t earned his place at the head of the ticket. He needs to be helpful to Democrats who are running to win seats or to retain seats. So running as hard against Congress is not an option for him. Advantage (though small) McCain.
You may or may not have noticed that Obama has dark skin and McCain has light skin. For reasonable people that doesn’t make one bit of difference. Unfortunately being a reasonable person is not required to vote. I hate to admit it but there are still people who will not vote for an African-American candidate. How many of them are out there? I don’t think anyone knows because most of them are smart enough not to admit it publicly. This is the great unknown in this campaign. Depressing as it is personally to me it would be foolish to discount it as a factor.
I think this election is just too close to call. I do think that McCain more than Obama will determine the outcome. I think he is seriously hurting himself with the half-truths, distortions, and out right incorrect statements he is making. He may yet convince people like me to stay home on election day.
And then there is the Electoral College. Can Obama win enough of the large states with large urban and minority populations to win the election even without a majority of the population voting for him? I think there is a good chance of that. Could McCain win enough of the so-called red states and pick up a couple of states where bigotry crosses party lines? Perhaps.
But we have a month and a half yet and a lot could happen. The Palin decision could look even worse in a couple of weeks. Some blatant racist action could win Obama a lot of sympathy. People could turn away from McCain for not being straight. One candidate of the other could blow a debate. Palin/Biden is going to be awfully important. I can actually see that being a huge factor.
So too early and too close to call. See me in a month. 🙂