Iowa

Iowa Caucus today. I’m glued to my computer. But it hasn’t even started.

This article mentions some interesting scenarios. One is that Edwards has been campaigning like mad in Iowa for a long time, so some are suggesting that he might walk away in first place. But Obama’s camp is also expecting a huge turnout: if we can get a flood of young voters to go to the Caucus, Obama’s a shoe-in. The article even mentions that it wouldn’t really be so surprising if Hillary, generally considered the front-runner, comes out in third place. The polls have started contradicting each other. One December 30 poll shows Obama winning slightly, another shows Clinton winning slightly. It’s all within that margin of error, and, on top of the margin of error, you have to wonder about who’s going to show up at the Caucus.

Giuliani is playing his cards… strangely. It looks like he’s blowing off Iowa again. He’s behind even Thompson in Iowa. I’m still surprised that Huckabee is doing so well in Iowa. He and Romney are duking it out there. (And, while I have major issues with a candidate who proclaims that he’s going to recapture our nation for Christ, I think I’d favor him over Romney.)

New Hampshire’s a bit interesting, too. Averaging polls, and mixing gut feeling in, it looks like Clinton enjoys a slight lead over Obama, and both of them are out in front of Edwards. But I think Iowa’s going to play a big role. If Edwards does really well in Iowa, that may bring him success in New Hampshire. Of course I’m crossing my fingers for Obama.

The Republican front gets interesting here, because the candidates who are polling favorably here aren’t the same ones in Iowa. Giuliani isn’t doing too well here, either–and I recall a recent article suggesting that, the more he campaigned here, the more his numbers dropped–but he’s doing better than in Iowa. Huckabee here falls tremendously, though, to a mere 9%. The two big guys here are Romney and McCain. McCain was actually leading in the most recent poll, although a poll a few days earlier said the same about Romney.

South Carolina’s being called another bellwether state. They have split primaries: the R’s go the 19th and the D’s go a week later. The South Caroliners show no love for their neighbor to the North, John Edwards, who’s polling at 17% pretty consistently. Here, Obama and Clinton are also neck-and-neck, although what’s interesting is that it looks like Obama has been closing in: in previous surveys he wasn’t nearly as close. On the Republican front, they’re quite fragmented: Giuliani, McCain, Romney, and Thompson are all pretty close. Huckabee enjoys a significant lead here, with 28% of the vote. I’m thinking that Iowa and New Hampshire might shake things up a bit: Thompson and McCain aren’t looking viable in the first two, so perhaps their supporters will get behind another candidate.

Before South Carolina, though, we have Michigan. They haven’t been getting polled that often, though. It looks like Romney and Huckabee are the two big guys there. We have to go back to November to see Democrat results, but it looks like Clinton has a significant lead in Michigan. And then there’s Florida, where Giuliani leads, with Huckabee and Romney essentially tied for second. Hillary seems to enjoy a significant lead in the Democratic race.

Don’t get too caught up in the need for instant gratification watching who wins, though. The next week is going to be exciting, and then there’s Super Tuesday (or Super Duper Tuesday as it’s now being called), with over 20 states holding primaries the first Tuesday in February. But we can’t just wait until February to know: as the map shows, a sizable number of states have later primaries. Montana and South Dakota are off in the Twilight Zone, holding primaries in June. (Think they’ve had a lot of candidate visits? Then again, think they’re getting a lot of calls?) The DNC is at the end of August, and the RNC is the next week, starting off September.

One thought on “Iowa

  1. If Huckabee does well, especially if he wins, in Iowa then a lot of people in the later states who have him as a second choice because they think he cannot win may very well change their minds. Iowa is a must win for him I think. He has a chance if he is a close second but that may depend on who comes in first.

    Unless one of the Dems wins big then Iowa changes almost nothing for them.

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