2008

I would love to be wrong, but here’s my prediction for 2008: Rudy Giuliani. He’s not who I’m favoring to win (at all), but he’s who I’m currently convinced is going to win. Here’s why:

  • Obama: My favorite. But he’s young in the Senate and has no leadership experience (e.g., as governor). I think he’d do great, but I don’t think enough people think that.
  • Hillary: I’m a Democrat and agree with about 99% of her policies, and yet I’m not too fond of her for no reason at all. I know a lot of people, many who would normally vote Democrat, who would not vote for her. The problem is that I also think that she’s going to get the nomination. Which means it’s going to be down to her and a Republican. More on this in a minute.
  • Edwards: He’d make a great leader, but he’s not getting much attention right now. Unless this changes, I don’t think he stands a chance.
  • Bill Richardson: He’d also be great, but at the current rate, his recognition is so low that I don’t think he stands a chance.
  • Mitt Romney: Not many Massachusetts voters like him, especially since most Massachusetts residents are Democrats. No Democrats would vote for a conservative Republican in 2008. But what Republican is going to vote for the governor of the (arguably) most liberal state in the country, who implemented universal healthcare in the end of his term and was in office when we became the only state to permit gay marriage. He has his followers, but I don’t think he stands much of a chance.
  • Ron Paul: Some of his policies are good, but I think “out there” is the best way I’ve been able to describe him. While he has a very vocal cadre of Internet supporters, I don’t think he stands a chance “IRL.”
  • Rudy Giuliani: From what I’ve heard, a lot of NYC residents hate him. But he’s a moderate. I figure the far-right will go for Romney and lose. The far-left won’t vote for him. But everyone from center-right to center-left, and most undecideds, might be willing to consider him. (I’m not diametrically opposed to him yet, though I think I’d definitely vote blue.)

In addition to the whole, “I could be wrong” thing, this could also change over time. For example, if Edwards starts getting a lot of publicity, he stands a chance. Giuliani could fall in popularity. Obama could push his numbers up, or get the media to talk about something other than the fact that he’s black. Hillary could win over some voters by combating the impression that she’s uncaring and cold-hearted.

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