I’m fond of the Electoral-Vote.com site; it’s run by an American expat with a Ph.D. in statistics, and a keen passion for following politics and polls. He’s slanted to the left, surely, but there’s nothing wrong with that. Err, I meant to say, he doesn’t let his political persuasions influence poll results.

I’ve just put a little graphic on the right corner of the main page, just below the table of contents, showing his most recent count. He’s not generating those graphics for every Senate race, but you can view a page of Senate poll results here. I have to wonder if the plummet in Shaheen’s poll numbers was the result of the massive conservative attacks accusing her of implementing sales and income taxes… Though I’m not sure what’s behind Sununu’s, when he fell to 35% in polls. It predated my blog post about him, so it can’t be that. 😉 What’s interesting about the Sununu-Shaheen Senate race, besides the number of capital S’s, is that, until about a month ago, Shaheen seemed a shoe-in. Now I’d dare say that all bets are off: she’s still ahead on average, but they’re close and it’s rocky.

North Carolina’s an interesting state, too. Their Senate race graph is weird, with incubment Republican Elizabeth Dole (in answer to the inevitable question, yes, she’s married to Bob) initially soaring some 15 points ahead of the Democratic contender, Kay Hagan. But Dole has slowly dropped in polls, until they were tied in August. And then the graph started taking some pretty wild drugs, and they’re now basically in a tie, surging and plummeting at the same time, which doesn’t make an awful lot of sense.

North Carolina is also the only state that “the Votemaster” is calling a tie right now, with John McCain enjoying a sizeable lead until mid-September, when things got close and intense. Now they’re pretty much tied; the regression lines since September show Obama gaining and McCain losing, but realistically, they’re tied, and staying tied.

It’s a certain battleground state, with a lot of electoral votes (15) and a close race. Florida, too, is awfully close with its 27 votes, but leaning towards Obama. (However, that shouldn’t mean a lot when it comes to Floridians going to the polls?). Ohio, with 20 votes, is also really close, leaning blue. Indiana has 11 votes, and is slightly leaning McCain‘s way; he seems to be gaining in polls there as well, though Obama’s still around 45%.

Texas, with its 34 electoral votes, is almost certainly for McCain, but what interests me is that, even in places like Texas, Obama’s got almost 45% of the vote. (And 40% in Kansas.)

Meanwhile, the NH House races look blue, too. An October poll has Shea-Porter at 50%, to Bradley’s 41%, and Hodes (District 2) towering over Jennifer Horn, 47% to 34%.

There doesn’t appear to be much polling going on for the the NH Legislature, so my curiousity about Sheila Roberge will persist…